Office Stay or Go? The Real Estate Squid Game Explained

“To move or not to move”, that is the question.  

As the Australian CBD real estate markets react to global events at various points on the Richter scale, the choice of whether to move office or stay put has never been more difficult.  

The hallmark of commercial property used to be a steady oscillation of favourability toward landlord or tenant, based on stock demand vs supply to the market. Now the seasons change more frequently. It’s hard to make hay, even if the sun is still shining down under.  

The “Red Light, Green Light” Concept 

In today’s high-stakes commercial property market, office lease decisions feel a lot like a game of chance. Inspired by the famous "Red Light, Green Light" in Squid Game, we’ve broken down the key factors influencing whether businesses should stay in place or make a strategic move. Green Light means go – opportunities worth acting on. Red Light means stay – signals to pause, reassess, and proceed with caution.  

Ready to play? Let’s explore what’s driving real estate decisions in 2025. 

🟢 Green Light: High Rental Incentives 

It doesn’t matter if your lease isn’t expiring. We are seeing an increasing number of businesses surrendering their leases early in order to grab a high rental incentive elsewhere. Ten years ago, if you signed a lease, you would generally stick to it come what may. 
 

🔴 Red Light: Back to Office Confusion 

In some cases, businesses are still trying to establish how to get people back to the office. This causes confusion about how much workspace will be needed and on which days. This was never an issue pre-pandemic but a very real question now with often a different answer from one day to the next. 
 

🟢 Green Light: Downsize the Office 

Businesses that have worked out their new normal and now have a workable management and accommodation rhythm are deducing that they need less space. A typical 1000sqm tenant employing 100 staff might now be looking for a 600sqm-700sqm office, with the function of the workspace shifting from output and production to collaboration and destination.  
 

🔴 Red Light: Economic Uncertainty  

The ability to predict the future “trumps” any real estate decision these days. We used to see a slower ripple reaction to global events before a business would shift direction to compensate for the change. Recently money markets, interest rate policy and international tariffs bounce around like a rodeo so much that not even the Rhinestone Cowboy can hold on. How can you make an effective real estate decision for the next 5-7 years without being bucked off your wild fiscal horse? 
 

🟢 Green Light: Offshoring & Flexible Real Estate 

The decade bookended by the GFC and the pandemic saw a huge rise in co-working and serviced office providers. In the same period, improvements in workplace technology went hand in hand with offshoring, leading to a more international workforce complexion. While the future may be less predictable, flexible space now acts as a safety net when businesses make the wrong real estate decision.  
 

🔴 Red Light: AI & Government Wildcards 

Various forms of Australian government have 534 leases across Australia, representing the largest workplace tenant in Australia. As we all grapple with events in the USA, what if we end up with our very own comic book character pollie who DOGES the shit out of our government? Real estate demand could potentially plummet. Artificial Intelligence is another grim reaper standing at the doors of corporate Australia. How many jobs will there actually be for real people 10 years from now and how do we navigate that change? Even Nostradamus couldn’t have worked that one out.
 

🟢 Green Light: Breaking the 1,000sqm Rule 

Buildings in Australia have mostly been designed with 1000sqm floor plates, on the assumption this will suit 100 employees. Now this algorithm no longer holds, landlords started split floors into 2 or 3 pre-fitted tenancies. Businesses can still have their home in the CBD at a more economical scale.  

No Amber Light, Only Action 

In the Australian real estate Squid Game of "Red Light, Green Light", there’s no room to hesitate. With property markets moving quickly, leadership teams must weigh cultural needs, cost benefits, and future uncertainty, then act with confidence. 

Not Sure Whether to Stay or Go? 

If you're weighing up your next workplace move, the Office Stay or Go series offers a practical starting point. It brings together insights, frameworks, and examples to help businesses explore their options and make decisions with more clarity. 

You’ll find tools to assess your current situation, understand key drivers like culture, cost and flexibility and hear from experts how other business leaders are approaching similar choices. 

Explore the Office Stay or Go Hub to dive into the resources.